Week 01 Soybeans SHORT, Stocks + Crude Oil LONG

Week 52 Stocks SHORT, Crude Oil + Bonds LONG

Week 51 Crude Oil

Week 50 Bonds SHORT, Crude Oil + Fdax + Dow LONG

Week 49 Fdax + Dow LONG, Fgbl LONG, Nasdaq + Gold + Crude Oil SHORT

Dow LONG on a failed short setup (no break below friday and thursdays low):

Nasdaq SHORT move down to weekly target 

Week 48 Bonds LONG, Gold + Natural Gas SHORT

Natural Gas Short:

Gold SHORT:

Nasdaq still below 50 day moving average so upmove is just a correction:

Week 47 Crude Oil SHORT, Stocks LONG

Gapfill on Crude Oil:

All markets bearish but large trades already buying crude oil, gold, silver, wheat and S&P:

Week 46 Gold SHORT, Crude Oil + Natural Gas LONG, Crude Oil + Nasdaq SHORT

SHORT Crude Oil at prior fridays high:

Week 45 Nasdaq SHORT, Bonds LONG

Trading Plan: 50 day moving average as guideline and entry on prior weeks 50%

Besides looking at the COT data and the trendspotter on barchart.com

I usually enter swing trades if the price is above or below 50 day moving average after a trendlinebreak

To reduce the risk on the entry (prior week closed above / below 50 day moving average) I try to enter at 50% of the prior weeks range:

Performance from july 2007 to november 2012:

Week 44 Dow + Gold + Fdax + Crude Oil Correction UP, Bonds LONG

Fdax and Crude Oil long move (no new long trend yet):

Week 43 Soybean Meal LONG, Fdax + Crude Oil SHORT

Week 42 Stocks and Gold moved up (but are still in a downtrend), Bonds SHORT, Crude Oil sidways, Natural Gas LONG

At the beginning of the week markets where in a buy area, so crude oil, gold and the stock market indices rallyed a bit:

How it played out that entering the nasdaq at a prior day low in a DP area

provided an low risk opportunity for an upmove to the 50% of last down swing:

and then nasdaq sold off again at 50% of wednesdays range:

Since 8th of october stocks / gold have broken the uptrendline and should go lower, but at the beginning of the week traded long because of a reversal at the DP area, then price will droped below the low of the prior two days and the short trend continued.

Crude Oil is still sideways and bonds still short.

So the clearest play is at the moment the nasdaq short down to 2650 (1:1 swing extension)

and Gold down to 1700

Week 41 Nasdaq SHORT, Natural Gas LONG

Dow still long on the COT index but nasdaq provided a nice shorting opportunity this week:

^

Week 40 Crude Oil SHORT

Review September

COT for
Indicies still bullish (waiting for the Large Speculators to have fewer net long positions than on previous COT report to switch to a bearish view)
Crude Oil changed from bullish to bearish SHORT entry
Natural Gas changed from bearish to bullish LONG entry
Metals still bullish
Grails still bearish

Week 40 Natural Gas LONG

Week 39 Natural Gas + Silver + Bonds LONG

Natural Gas LONG
S+P, FTSE, FESX SHORT move
Silver LONG
Bonds LONG